"Black Gold, Texas Tea"...

     OPEC is meeting in Cancun this week.  The Consensus is that, if they maintain a buffer supply, they can keep the price @ the $82-85 Range indefinitely.  They've a reason for keeping prices below premium.  Prices for gas @ $3-4 causes too much "conservation" in the American Market.  I would prefer a $90 - 100, and look for it to be the new norm.   

We HOLD:
British Petroleum (BP) [@56.83*] :  This is our major BUY.  Dividend (5.90%)
Marithon Oil (MRO) [@31.40*] :  Marithon is expanding Retail Outlets and Profile.  Don't buy it for the Div. (3.+%)
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) [57.54*] :  They're on an Expansion/Dealmaking Spree; 2012, beginning profs.  Dividend (5.84%)

If you get IN to an Oil Stock, I've another Desktop Shortcut for you:  Oil-Price.net
*Closing Price March 30, 2010.

Managed Depression and The Market...

When I'm Depressed, because The Market
is DOWN..

...It's time to BUY!

(NO, I don't use them!)

Week-End Update...

For Dividend:  Look into ING International High Dividend Equity (IID) this week.  Here, again, if the shares stagnate, the div. is exellent.  The current trend is up.  We're going IN this week, because next week may be busy.

Thruway Portfolio, A lesson In Empirical Intuition...

Sometimes, we come up with strategies too late in The Game (sometimes, they're just bad).  I got a story to tell, here, of one that didn't make it.       

     In October of last year, The Clique had discussed the possibilty of setting up a Port devoted only to stocks of publically traded companies at in an upscale shopping center in our area (Thruway Center in Winston-Salem, NC).

     The proposal never came to fruition because we already had postitions in some of the companies, both as a Group and as indiviuals.  At that time the minimum buyin for a Slot in a Syndicated Trade was $1000 per position (and that was a principle set standard); the obligation seemed too much to tie up in what was, basically, an Investment Experiement.  There was money to be made, elsewhere; deals to be done, etc. etc.
     Last night, the topic came up as a "what if" conversation about the proposal and I volunteered to do the math to see how we'd have faired.  Once I did the math, based on an arbitrary date, I am damn glad we didn't proceed.  Herein are the results:

Thruway has 11 tenants with public offerings.  I picked the Oct. start date from my famous Dart Board.  Price is @ Open.

October 12, 2009 price 

Today, March 26,2010 price 
(Gain/Loss)

Ann Taylor Loft               ANN 

15.87 / 21.11 (+25%)**

Bed, Bath and Beyond   BBBY 

37.33 / 44.00 (+15%)

Borders Group, Inc         BGP 

3.27 / 2.06 (-37%)

Chico's                           CHS  

12.70 / 14.06 (+10%)

FedEx/Kinko's                FDX   

78.40 / 91.35 (+14%)

McDonald's Corp.           MCD

56.93 / 67.26 (+15%)

Rite Aid Corp.                 RAD

1.53 / 1.68 (+9%)
Sprint Store                    S

3.14 / 3.80 (+17%)
Stein Mart, Inc.               SMRT

12.62 / 9.31 (-18%)

Talbot's                           TLB

11.29 / 11.48 (+2%)

Well-Fargo*                    WFC

29.50 / 31.22 (+6%)

4.54% - 6 Month Gain (="nothing")

This result does not reflect on viabllty of the Companies listed above.  We currenty have BBBY-FDX-WFC in Holding Accounts and BGP-SMRT-TLB in Working. 

"Looking at the forest" it seems as though we did the smart thing by not doing a blanket buy.  A couple factors skew the conclusion that the idea was all bad. 
Timing is everything.  The timing was bad for the idea "getting off the ground" at those prices.   We wouldn't have bought in at the static prices above, and we knew the resistance was there.

And we knew this, because...

...we had taken postions on a couple of the stocks over the Spring and Summer, and those stocks were successful.  For example, we had purchased RAD @.86 in April and had dumped it @2.17 in Sept., FDX was bought @52.73 in May and it has been good for profit taking since (closed @91.35, yesterday).  And this is even skewed beacuse I'm serious when I tell you we used a dartboard to pick stocks, last year.  EVERYTHING WENT UP.  October was just a bit too late for a Blanket Strategy for these stocks.  We didn't even take a position in BGP until January 2010.

Thruway Center is an up-scale Shopping Center in Winston-Salem, NC.  The atmoshere, there, makes it more appealing than schlepping to the local mall.  It is owned by Saul Centers, Inc and looking at their run since October [BFS: 32.60 / 40.56 (+20)], maybe we should have looked into who owned the forest! 

Just for the hell of it, I'm going to do follow up in an August Entry.  We'll see.

*Wachovia Branch in Center

**Pecentages rounded.

New Picks (finally!) and a Dividend Strategy...

     I must apologize for too much editorializing, lately.  I've positive and negative feedback from you regarding my Editorial Entries.  Anyway, thanks for your patience with the 'Ol Geezer's rant in this Blog.  Now back to what you read my Blog for.

CURRENT:

 Wells Fargo (WFC):  I'm long a BIG FAN of Wells Fargo.  It's the first stock I took profit on (May, 2009).  If you area a devotee of this Blog, you know I liked it @ 28. and went IN @ 27. and change.  I think it's going thought the resistance zone of $33.00.  However, it's a Holding Buy, and well worth it with diversification in mind.

Pike Energy Corp. (PIKE):  Next Q profits will be up.  I expect resistance in the $12 range.  Another stock good for Holding Accounts.
Lithium Tech (LTHU):  This company was almost listed as a Cowboy Trade; and true, there's flash money to be made from it's fluctuation.  It's cheap, real cheap, so anyone could get IN with "loose change" lying around.
Titanium Metals Corp. (TIE):  We went IN on Febuary 11 @ 11.23.  I have since taken a personal heavy position on it.  Most recent good news for the stock is that Boeing is projecting increased production.  The major positive for this company are mineral leases they own in Nevada.  Won't be off the radar for long! 

"COWBOY" TRADES:

Two "Standards" are still viable, and as usual with this type of Trade, set your Alerts and to Watch your Blackberry.  Remember, Cowboys are Flash Trades, In and OUT. 
TGIC
IROG

DIVIDEND PICKS:

     Bank Interest Rates are so low, people will be looking for a place to put  funds to earn money. Dividends Stocks will be the best game in town.  I think this is going to push the price for them in the foreseeable future.  Growth potential will be lower, but the div a hedge even if the stock stagnates.  To do R&B (Research and BUY), check out Dividend Stocks Online.  Also, roll divs back into stock. (Note: If you go to Bonds and Limited Partnerships, they may not offer this option.)

Duke Energy (DUK ):  Energy Sector.  This has been purchased for Holding Accounts by individual Group Members.  It has a stable 6% (+/-) Dividend, but marginal growth potential.  Mom loves it!  An advantage to DUK is one can purchase it directly from Corporate for  a $250 minimum buyin and a .05 per share commish to sell.  Contact Investor Relations, 704/ 382-3853 - 800/ 488-3853, Charlotte, NC 28201-1005
Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO):  Shipping Sector.  This is my favorite stock pick.  I PUMED it so much, my friends began refering to me as "TK" (Douglas put a kibosh to that!).  By way of disclosing: my Mom got IN @ 14.62 and I followed @ 14.79 - heavy, when the div was 14+.  TOO is currently selling in the 19.50 range, yielding 9.2%.  My logistical strategy on this company is, being an oil tanker/storage concern, that it doesn't matter what the price of oil is---it has to be shipped and stored.  Alright, alright; it's the dividend.
     I've an Investment Theory which states if the dividend goes down on a stock, the price of the stock rises.  Three brokers I have mentioned this to, SCOFFED.  I've paid for dinner many times over the past year by using the strategy!

March 2010 - A Year After Our Investment Group Was Formed: Still Great Optimism and 52-Week Highs...

This time last year, I was being assured that former Market Activity had been managed well.  That my per annum losses were "minimal" and that I had avoided a personal financial doomsday.  Advisors, Riley and Richlin, told me to become more involved in investing.  And, boy, did I ever get involved. 

     One night at the local Pub, an off-hand remark positively> changed the course of my future finances.  A couple buddies and I decided to pool finanacial and intellectual resorces to form an Investment Group.  The next day, we'd grown to 6 partners and formed an entity known as The DaTra Group.  Hence, we'd be known as an "Investment Clique". 
     Little did I know what an all-consuming passion Trading would become for the next year.  Rolling stocks for massive short-term profits was a better Rush than any drug I had done in the 80's!  There's something about the first time you do a Cowboy Trade, making  20%  on a 2 day flip, that would have to be experienced to be understood.  Only to be able to do that, REPEATEDLY!  To be able to get  de rigueur 20% gains on 2 week-1 month flips spoiled us almost beyond redemption.

And our pub gatherings became bacchanals (if only we had invest that money).

     A year, hence, and the bloom may be off the rose; but the fragrance remains wonderful as ever.  Having postions in 67 (+/-, 5) stocks, keeping track of 120 - 150 and watching for the next 20% (which takes a bit longer than 24 hours, now) has had a sobering effect.

     A year, hench, and we had such "luck" that the inevitable CORRECTION has occured.  But, really; these corrections of late are hardly a speed bump in our journey to Portfolio Value.  Our due diligence has served us, well.  When a wave of corrections means your Ports are up ONLY 6% a MONTH, it's a necessary evil one can live with.

     There have been some 52-week highs achieved of late.  The Bravado of last year may be gone (?), but I still have the same advice for how to make money in The Market --- "Get In".  Regradless of the folly in Wahington, over the next couple years, Wall Street is the place to be.  It's a good place where any "rookie" [read. not "dummy"] to find financial Gain.   One can begin or continue Trading for a hell of alot less than it takes for, say, a real estate purchase (my second pick for a hobby, nowadays). 
     But, be warned: playing "THE GAME" will become addictive! 

This past week...

     After the Bad Call for Friday Profits, I'm @ the cabin this week-end.  This wasn't a horrible week except for my holding out for a Profit Threshhold which never materialized.  To quote Maxwell Smart, "Missed it by that much..."  I chart of all our positions every Saturday and we've maintained an upward momentum.  Thank the Market Gods for proper diversification.

     Watch next week for Profit Taking, but we've got to get over this "Washington Week-end"!
   

Happy St. Pat's...

New Definition for the Word: FICKLE...

...Good.

Can't be "on the money" all

the time.

But I'm Happy, Happy, Happy!!!

(We're still on for Friday.)

This week and Riding the Range...

This is going to be another "fickle" week

on The Street. 

For the next 6 months or so, The Market will be quite unpredictable.
We cannot ignore the fundamentals  (How I hate to watch fundies!...) telling us there will be a major correction in The Market somtime this year. 

So...

     Strategies we're using include leaving profs in Port. Accs. for Buyback shares on a correction.  Also, we've been Dumping Stagnant Stock with Divs Below 6%. 

     As for new Buys, we're not doing much "Holding".  For the first time, we're selling up to half a stake in a stock to take profits of 20%.  We may buy 200 shares and sell 100 when taking profit in the 20% range instead of 40.  Doing the math, this means the Cashback is 80% Break Even.  But it keeps a decent Cash Flow going to add to our Deposits as well as preserving  a position in the company.  Accounting and Disbursement is trickier!  No KISS, here.  Also, one of the Partners is doing a bit of Dividend Capture for us.

And oh yes...

     Speaking of Deposits:  Even with the Trials and Tribulations us Investors are going through, in 5 years we'll be looking back in wonder that we got the shares so cheap.  Does anyone remember putting money into CDs?

If you're bored, go with PIKE and LTHU.

Place "Stop" Orders on All Volatile Stocks!!!...

     As much as I stress the importance of placing Automatic Sell Orders on your positions, I got caught (badly) on Monday.  To add insult to injury, it was re: CLWR!


CLWR went up to 8.55 on Tuesday.  I get a call from a Clique Member telling me our Port had Taken Profs @8.5.  This prompted me to go to a Scottrade Account to check my personal postition (350 shares)  --- 8.04!  I have 22 Ports I help manage as GP of GSI/DaTra.  122-157 stocks to track.  That's my excuse for leaving MY Account wide open????  Just because I don't think a stock will Spike, NEVER means I shoudn't have an Auto Trade put on it!  I, generally, pick a number the stock is nowhere near and make that the autosell price.  And with CLWR the whole strategy is to BUY/SELL HIGH/GO BACK IN LOW because of it's rollercoaster moves!  My horoscope (Leo) said yesterday a leader should follow his own rules...

Today, I stood on the sideline and watched the stock drop.  I will never lose money on CLWR, because I'm "playing with the House's money".  Albeit, not breaking even (without write-off expenses) IS losing!

Thanks for the rant.
Normally, this is where I'd write, "take the lesson",
but this was too "stoopid" a mistake for me to feel so
cocky.

This Past Week...

The Market was fickle this week...

LJPC :  This thing, again.  Last year I made a couple Cowboy Trades with La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company, both lost.  Then, a couple months ago, an ex-partner of mine in San Diego said it might be in play.  I think it was @.23 when I put it on a Watchlist.  Last week, another call as a reminder to look at it.  The wanted to merge with a company, but at the time they only had a 9% reply from thier investor base and could not meet a Quorum.  Things were at a standstill. 

     Friday, I put together a couple other Cowboys for a  Short Block.  The stock was @[.11] when we put in an order to buy @.13.  Our investment strategy behind this move was that if the company was still alive, after Monday, the stock would go up.  On Monday our Ameritrade Account purchased the shares @.105.  On Tuesday, the shares went up to .185.  So we caught a Break Even Cash Out @183 (we almost missed the bid in the time it took to register the trade) and started "playing with the House's money".  All-in-all we were satisfied with the Play.  The remainder of the week, after being delisted from NASDAQ, LJPC ended @.07!  We may ONLY break even, but there's always the cash dispersment if the co. goes "belly up".  Oh well...

After that "long winded" entry, I hesitate to add more, but...

CCC :  I took a bit of Calgon Carbon this week as the stock was falling (Thursday).  It was part of a Group Buy and it's in a Holding Account, but I'm getting Out @20%. 

They provide services, products, and solutions for purifying water, air, food, beverage, and industrial process streams in the United States and internationally.

LTHU :  I'm hot on this stock!  I did a Holding Buy on it this week and am very happy.  It's cheap, so anyone can Get In.  I would tell you about it, but Reserch is so much fun.  Check it out!

A Quick Pick...

I'm working on my week-end's entry, but I got a couple picks for you to consider:

-  TLB

- [garden supply sector]

- WY

Hope Springs Eternal...

Popped Up in my E-mail from Calendar Alerts, today:

"Alerts from Windows Live Calendar

You have received the following alert from Windows Live Calendar provided by Windows Live Alerts Service

Take Profits @ Dow 1240

Monday, March 1, 2010"

Was entered in December; thought I'd be too busy Trading to remember to check stocks for Pofit Taking.  Didn't quite see this Corrective Season coming...