Friday, April 30, 2010

Why What Is Happening in the Goldman Affair Is Of Little Import to Us (but some)...

     Goldman was dragged into the Circus Ring of Congress this week to expalin away their actions in Derivatives Trading.  I'm of the opinion that not too much positive or substanative progress will be made from the spectacle [see link].
     I'm not in the Sofisticated Class of investor to have delt in the type of investment vehicles Goldman available.  By the same token, one would think that if one had enough funds to buy into those vehicles, they'd be well aware of the risks and rewards involved.  To wit, "there's nothing worse than seeing a big boy cry".  These guys are analogous to the Bernie Madoff Suckers, they weren't crying when those hefty % checks were coming in.  Lauging at the goys who weren't privy to the deal. 
    
      Investors like us, I'd like to think, will get along just fine.  Maybe there's such a thing as too sofisticated.  We wouldn't buy a stock without knowing what the company did to make money.  Our concern will be if the Government restricts trade in the United States so much that WE cannot make money.  We all gamble every time we buy, I don't want a Mother Goverment (geared more to handing out dole and entitlements) taking away our right to lose!

[Link to my take on The Spectacle]

We are Active and Brilliant, But Some Are "Sophisticated"...

     Of course, with our Playing The Market, we aspire to certain goals.  Here, I have a definition of what an "ultimate" goal would be.  I have it, herein, to use in context to what happened to the investors at Goldman in the post above...

Who is a Sophisticated Investor?

A type of investor who is deemed to have sufficient investing experience and knowledge to weigh the risks and merits of an investment opportunity.

     For certain purposes, net worth and income restrictions must be met before a person can be classified a sophisticated investor. The distinction makes an investor eligible to buy into certain investment opportunities, such as pre-IPO securities, that are considered "non-disclosure" or "non-prospectus" issues. Typically, a sophisticated investor must have either a net worth of $2.5 million or have earned more than $250,000 in the past two years to qualify.
      Sophisticated investors may have to prove their net worth prior to being eligible to purchase certain security types. Investors will often have their personal accountants send this proof to the brokerage firm. Sophisticated investors are the dream clients of most financial services firms, as they generate much higher fees than retail investors.
     Certain assumptions are made about sophisticated investors: that they can hold their investments indefinitely (the funds do not need to be liquidated for cash needs), and they can assume a total loss of investment principal without causing severe damage to their overall net worth.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

What the...

     WOW!
Today was one of those "what the Hell?" days which gives us an oppotunity to look for bargains.  That's the only positive spin I can put on it when I've a 2.76% Loss in my Portfolio Catalogue.  Even by last year's standards, that would have been considered a hit.  This year, it's a true "body blow" when one is struggling to make 8% per month gains. 
Taking Profits was a factor, but the absolute mess the Socialist Societies in the European Union have made of their financial systems was paramount in Our BAD DAY (are you listening Washington?).   Investor worries have grown beyond the speed with which any aid package for Greece can be enacted. Germany, in particular, has insisted on Greece's commitment to harsh austerity programs before agreeing to a loan, and Greece must repay a €8.5 billion 10-year bond on May 19. 
Even with the Euro Markets taking a much larger loss than we did; so What?, it's thier problem (really).  Unfortunatly, with the glabalization we must contend with in our large cap holdings, "when the European Market is laid up in bed with the flu, we must at least sneeze".
On a facetious note, maybe we should bail out Greece so Our Markets wouldn't need to worry. 

Monday, April 26, 2010

I'm Back and We've Had Some Trouble in Paradise...

Just back from trip.  I'll be on line, tomorrow, but I felt compelled to inform you of the BP Situation
Much contention was made within the Clique as to what to do with our $53.20 Feb26 PositionSOLD @ $59.88 FRI23 and Parked in MRO.
     Concensus was trouble in Gulf would cost us more than the 5+% Div. despite positive Earnings Report Outlook (at the time).  As with Massey Energy, recently, "this too shall pass"; but that oil spill will need to be a distant memory coupled with a very good Q2 (or 3).

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

A Look Back At Some Personal Trades...

Just a review of some Investment Decisions I made in Q4 2009.  A good example of:  "Win a few, Lose a few".

Purchase Date/Sym/Price                @ Open Today

OCT 04    STX    15.11                           18.90

OCT 13    CSX    42.61                           52.87
                SIRI    .56                                 .97
     
[OCT 26]  GSB    1.63 THUR                  1.33
                BAK    13.48 THUR                14.40
                NEU     99.37 TUE                  110.09
                CLWR  6.82                           6.95

NOV 06    FWLT   31.26                         30.06

NOV 09    DUSA   1.42                        2.04
                CENX   9.38                        15.97

NOV 13    DAR     7.02                          8.97
                ACLS    1.04                          2.19

NOV 15    JVA      4.36                         4.85
                NOK    13.55                       15.19
                XOMA  .707                        .783
   
NOVE16   CRAY   7.21                          6.62

NOV 19    IROG    .80                            Sold @ .91

NOV 23    CLWR   5.67                         6.95

NOV 30    SCI        7.53                           9.57
                CZWI     3.32                           3.93
                FRTP     5.03                            6.39
                DUSA    1.52                            2.04

Not just for edification. 
Are still viable and HELD.
Taken Profs.
FRTP/NOK will be a Sell, soon.  Cray on Long, I'm not worried about.  TGIC is out of play for Quick Flip.  IROG is Out, don't Buy (this type of reccommendation is, usally, my Cowboy Buy cue).  Get CLWR and Play.

Today...

Check out Game Trading Tech (GMTD).

Out of Town...

I'm "Gone Country" for a couple weeks...

Time for me to take a break.  It's a good trip with no Laptop of PC.  We'll have Blackberry, but I don't do alot of "texting", as I'm an 'Ol Geezer who wears bifocals.  


     With the Market Action, lately, seems the perfect time to step back.  I love the intensity of Earings Season, but I'll be with you guys in spirit.

Have Good Closings while
I'm away!

(Texting may be a good Lead.  If I was in my 20's, I'd be going long in the Optical Sector because all these kids, doing their "biz" on those small screens, are going to need major VisionCare in the future.)

Friday, April 9, 2010

CLWR...



Did you catch Clearwire
@ 6.90, yesterday?






A few of you have asked why CLWR shows up in The Advisory so often.  Between Group and Personal BUYs, it makes up 17% of my Stock Investment.  Naturally, I control this Stock for everyone.  And why am I so "Motley Foolish" in this?  Beacuse, the Roller Coaster Strategy we learned through this Stock has served us well in regard to other Positions.

"DANGER WILL ROBINSON..."   Model B-9 Environmental-Control Robot is right; having this much exposure in a single (non-dividend paying) postion is a risky strategy.  Not for beginners, the timid or the causual investor.

                                                                                                                   

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Today and Over the Horizon...

     CLWR is nearing the bottom of rollercoaster.  Get ready to go IN.
Start looking to Prof Taking on RETAIL Positions.

     Yesterday, we held pat in trading. The Short Sellers Volume was so high that the Market may turn today. We're confidend within 2 weeks the S&P will be in the 1200 range . That, coupled with Earning Season being upon, next week, should us will make us Happy Campers.  This'll be the right direction for the Current Accounts, and lagging stocks which haven't quite met a PT Threashold for.


     Hold your position on the swell; we're about to find a pipe to the sand!

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Add to Watchlist...

Massey Energy (MEE)-  We'll get IN at the Levelling-off Price.  Back in black when the kneejerk reaction is over.  Sure they'll have to pay families for their loss and spend some on cosmetic safety upgrades.  However, shouldn't be a bad Working BUY, expecting a minimum of 10% Gain. 
The average "morning period" for situations like this is 9 months.  Expect black ink after Congressional Hearing.  You think those Asses on The Hill won't take this chance to bash the Coal Industry?  Pay attention.

For our purposes, don't be too concerned about Congressional Action; the Coal Industry will be A Fact Of Life for the foreseeable future.

Monday, April 5, 2010

Off Topic, For Fun...

This Week...

     We're Watching our Current Ports for Profits (always); but with limited Prof Opps, lately, we've pretty much "drank that wetbar dry".  Surely the Market Gods won't make it worse than last week.  Keep and eye out for bargains.
    
Now for the Real Work of Picking for Parked Cash:

I'm taking a look at KSP, again.  It's going to be a gamble, but we don't make gains w/o throwing the dice, occassionally.  Wouldn't be so bad if we weren't already IN on + price.  It won't be a Cowboy, but rather a Holding Play.  Div can't be (legitimately) beat, but the reason we'd Buy will be projected growth.  Any upswing, we're IN.

TIE still has some traction; but, boy, are We ever Heavy on it, already.

MSY will be the Fund Play of the Week.  Nothing against IID, but we need the diversification.   Why Pinksheeted?

Give a look at:  MPEL - CENX - CTIC - MRNA

Friday, April 2, 2010

A Blip About Unionized Companies...

     The UAW is issued 362M+ Warrants, today, on Ford (F).  It's not so bad for us shareholders as they'll be with 14.20 at strike price.  We've got Profit Taking set for $15, so let's hope they're successful with their "dump".
      But what if that a Damn Union had Warrants and chose to offer them at a cost way below what the Bid?  My R&D this W-E is going to be looking into the Cos we have shares in with unionized workers.  It would be nice to know about Warrants and other instruments the unions hold which may cause trouble for the companies.

     How I miss 2009 when, issues like these and fundies were "no worries"... 

Thursday, April 1, 2010

For the Week-End...

R&D/Homework:  WarrantsDud or a Gold Mine...?

The fellows at the UAW just issued 362M+ Warrants for Ford Motors (F).  This is not having the effect of a Secondary Offering, but I'm leary of the prospect.  It was a blindside to me and I'm checking outstanding Warrants on Major Holdings this W-E.  Secondaries have dashed Profit Taking  hopes (at least temporarily) a couple times for me, but I have completely neglected this threat to The Ports.  Guess Fundies are becoming more important to Our Strategy.