This week...

Take a look: TMX TLB KIRK RAD VHC BBBY
On Radar: Pipeline companies, after the debacle last week re: PG&E
EDIT

Our Gamble On Xoma and The Man To Watch...

     Steven B. Engle is now the CEO and Chairman of XOMA.  He Jumped from LJPC in 2007.  We've lost money on our LJPC Stock, though we got our before it went on Life Support (there's still a couple thousand shares floating around in our Ports).  Hmm...  If our investment in XOMA doesn't do well, and it has hit the skids since we first Bought In, I'll know the next company this guy goes to.  If he's running "Pump and Dump", I'll be In on the next one.  And if he brings Xoma52 to the market, successfully, I'll want to stay with a Winner.  LJPC was not a winner, but we're all entitled to that one BIG MISTAKE in our careers.

     I was a successful Telemarketer in L.A. during the early 80's so I know a good Scam when I see it.  Maybe I'm a bit paranoid about Scams, but it has kept me from Loses (and been responsible for some Gains) in the past.

P.S.  We just ReUpped XOMA @ .38, so I'm obviously not that concerned. (first In was @ .70, first reup @ .52 [Heavy])

Today...

Made a "Ford Trade"/Reup on WFC (27.44).

We like this stock. 
     One of the first trades The Clique made was with WFC.  And it's a Tall Ship in our Port.
     We first Bought (19.58) and Sold (26.03) on a two week flip.  We've gone Back In, Taken Profit, Reupped and done today's "Ford Trade".  It's so easy to make money with this stock if your Empirical Intuition is Active!!!
     Once it goes back up to the $33 range, it'll get tricky.  Hope not, but I think that's going to be the Prime Resistance Level.
     Now, lite me tell you why I think, @ $27+change, we're "picink it up off the floor".  The Spook of Congesses Financial Reform is over.

We are, after all; Cowboy Traders at Heart...

The Next CLWR...

     It took us months to figure out how to Play CLWR, the Rollercoaster Stock in our Ports.  Eventually, we put our heads together and came up with a Strategy to Ride the Coaster, Selling High and Buying Low.
     Just today we went IN on J.A. Solar Holding (JASO) which has a volatile history.  It is just familiar enough to us that we think we can call it.
     It WON'T be making up 20% of my ports, so win or lose...  And the co has been praised and put on "must have" lists, lately.  Though not always a tell, good mentions could indicate an upward trend.  That'd spoil our "fun", and kibosh our strat; but save on the aspirin!
N/E   

No, Not Again...

Don't tell me Douglas has threatened to get out of the Blogging Biz, yet again.  Tale of Woe, et. al.

What the???  Got a quickstudy on my hands...D.

We've been here before...

...riding the

Storm out.

The Sun
will rise, again.

Hmm.  Color text and highlight.  Someone's got nothing to do in The Market, today.

Add to Watchlist...

     I've gone back to my 2009 Special Place for Leads.  But be Diligent in your R&B, this is not 2009.  Even I am cautious because the source hasn't used it in awhile, but did make Profit Buys on the leads last week. 
     I am contently revisiting the "no Buy over $20 per, and I prefer $1-3 + change" Trading Mode in a new Port.  Non-Junk, Cheap is getting harder to find than " a Club Chick in Sunday School" 

DBTK -  SWKS  - PBEC (outsider picked this) - YUII
VHC -
NGD (careful with this co, "we've been down this road before")  

Take a look...

     Two old stocks from our 2009 Master List are back in play.  Add Dean Foods (DF) and Banco Santander (STD) to your watchlist,

Re: BP, an Ode...

     I'm sick that poor BP is involved with the current catastrophe.  But not because we had to dump our Stock (made $) and it had us rethink long-term Petrol Strategy. 

     Rather, BP is a "good" company caught
in a horrible situation. 

Right now, the estimated cost is at $3B Range, based on what I've been reading.

This is one of the Best Explanations I've read on the incident and future of OS Drilling: [LINK, Seeking Alpha]

Damn Alerts...

     336 Alerts in my "dailies" Inbox at 1P on 67 Positions; gee, "What's Hap?".  And that was just the Alerts count, seems EVERYONE had an op, today. 
      I would have hated to be a rookie, today.  I would have thought this was Investment Hell.

    

How was your day?

On the Bright Side, it's about as bad as it's going to get (?)...

     I feel a sense of deja vu with the Dollar surging in value and our Markets just going to Hell.  In the last 5 months of '09, we'd look for bargains if the dollar surged and would look to Sell on the downgrade.  Well, yesterday, the dollar was Way Up against every other currency.  We don't trade them, but we sure as hell pay attention to the Currencies Market. 
     And what to do about Greece, the "Lower Middle Class Family" of Europe, overextended to the inth degree and defaulting?  In the U.S., the Family bought a house they couldn't afford, a new car, a flatscreen; Greece offered too liberal wages, pention plans,the best a Welfare State could offer and topped it all off with rampant tax evasion.  Hope Wahington is paying attention

    It's a real frustration to go shopping for bargains in The Market, only to find the share you won ARE the bargains.  But we'll find some...

(For Fun, learn more about that U.S. Family: LINK)

I'm Back and We've Had Some Trouble in Paradise...

Just back from trip.  I'll be on line, tomorrow, but I felt compelled to inform you of the BP Situation. 
Much contention was made within the Clique as to what to do with our $53.20 Feb26 Position: SOLD @ $59.88 FRI23 and Parked in MRO.
     Concensus was trouble in Gulf would cost us more than the 5+% Div. despite positive Earnings Report Outlook (at the time).  As with Massey Energy, recently, "this too shall pass"; but that oil spill will need to be a distant memory coupled with a very good Q2 (or 3).

CLWR...

Did you catch Clearwire
@ 6.90, yesterday?

A few of you have asked why CLWR shows up in The Advisory so often.  Between Group and Personal BUYs, it makes up 17% of my Stock Investment.  Naturally, I control this Stock for everyone.  And why am I so "Motley Foolish" in this?  Beacuse, the Roller Coaster Strategy we learned through this Stock has served us well in regard to other Positions.

"DANGER WILL ROBINSON..."   Model B-9 Environmental-Control Robot is right; having this much exposure in a single (non-dividend paying) postion is a risky strategy.  Not for beginners, the timid or the causual investor.

                                                                                                                   

Add to Watchlist...

Massey Energy (MEE)-  We'll get IN at the Levelling-off Price.  Back in black when the kneejerk reaction is over.  Sure they'll have to pay families for their loss and spend some on cosmetic safety upgrades.  However, shouldn't be a bad Working BUY, expecting a minimum of 10% Gain. 
The average "morning period" for situations like this is 9 months.  Expect black ink after Congressional Hearing.  You think those Asses on The Hill won't take this chance to bash the Coal Industry?  Pay attention.

For our purposes, don't be too concerned about Congressional Action; the Coal Industry will be A Fact Of Life for the foreseeable future.

Off Topic, For Fun...

A Blip About Unionized Companies...

     The UAW is issued 362M+ Warrants, today, on Ford (F).  It's not so bad for us shareholders as they'll be with 14.20 at strike price.  We've got Profit Taking set for $15, so let's hope they're successful with their "dump".
      But what if that a Damn Union had Warrants and chose to offer them at a cost way below what the Bid?  My R&D this W-E is going to be looking into the Cos we have shares in with unionized workers.  It would be nice to know about Warrants and other instruments the unions hold which may cause trouble for the companies.

     How I miss 2009 when, issues like these and fundies were "no worries"... 

For the Week-End...

R&D/Homework:  Warrants.  Dud or a Gold Mine...?

The fellows at the UAW just issued 362M+ Warrants for Ford Motors (F).  This is not having the effect of a Secondary Offering, but I'm leary of the prospect.  It was a blindside to me and I'm checking outstanding Warrants on Major Holdings this W-E.  Secondaries have dashed Profit Taking  hopes (at least temporarily) a couple times for me, but I have completely neglected this threat to The Ports.  Guess Fundies are becoming more important to Our Strategy.

Thruway Portfolio, A lesson In Empirical Intuition...

Sometimes, we come up with strategies too late in The Game (sometimes, they're just bad).  I got a story to tell, here, of one that didn't make it.       

     In October of last year, The Clique had discussed the possibilty of setting up a Port devoted only to stocks of publically traded companies at in an upscale shopping center in our area (Thruway Center in Winston-Salem, NC).

     The proposal never came to fruition because we already had postitions in some of the companies, both as a Group and as indiviuals.  At that time the minimum buyin for a Slot in a Syndicated Trade was $1000 per position (and that was a principle set standard); the obligation seemed too much to tie up in what was, basically, an Investment Experiement.  There was money to be made, elsewhere; deals to be done, etc. etc.
     Last night, the topic came up as a "what if" conversation about the proposal and I volunteered to do the math to see how we'd have faired.  Once I did the math, based on an arbitrary date, I am damn glad we didn't proceed.  Herein are the results:

Thruway has 11 tenants with public offerings.  I picked the Oct. start date from my famous Dart Board.  Price is @ Open.

October 12, 2009 price 

Today, March 26,2010 price 
(Gain/Loss)

Ann Taylor Loft               ANN 

15.87 / 21.11 (+25%)**

Bed, Bath and Beyond   BBBY 

37.33 / 44.00 (+15%)

Borders Group, Inc         BGP 

3.27 / 2.06 (-37%)

Chico's                           CHS  

12.70 / 14.06 (+10%)

FedEx/Kinko's                FDX   

78.40 / 91.35 (+14%)

McDonald's Corp.           MCD

56.93 / 67.26 (+15%)

Rite Aid Corp.                 RAD

1.53 / 1.68 (+9%)
Sprint Store                    S

3.14 / 3.80 (+17%)
Stein Mart, Inc.               SMRT

12.62 / 9.31 (-18%)

Talbot's                           TLB

11.29 / 11.48 (+2%)

Well-Fargo*                    WFC

29.50 / 31.22 (+6%)

4.54% - 6 Month Gain (="nothing")

This result does not reflect on viabllty of the Companies listed above.  We currenty have BBBY-FDX-WFC in Holding Accounts and BGP-SMRT-TLB in Working. 

"Looking at the forest" it seems as though we did the smart thing by not doing a blanket buy.  A couple factors skew the conclusion that the idea was all bad. 
Timing is everything.  The timing was bad for the idea "getting off the ground" at those prices.   We wouldn't have bought in at the static prices above, and we knew the resistance was there.

And we knew this, because...

...we had taken postions on a couple of the stocks over the Spring and Summer, and those stocks were successful.  For example, we had purchased RAD @.86 in April and had dumped it @2.17 in Sept., FDX was bought @52.73 in May and it has been good for profit taking since (closed @91.35, yesterday).  And this is even skewed beacuse I'm serious when I tell you we used a dartboard to pick stocks, last year.  EVERYTHING WENT UP.  October was just a bit too late for a Blanket Strategy for these stocks.  We didn't even take a position in BGP until January 2010.

Thruway Center is an up-scale Shopping Center in Winston-Salem, NC.  The atmoshere, there, makes it more appealing than schlepping to the local mall.  It is owned by Saul Centers, Inc and looking at their run since October [BFS: 32.60 / 40.56 (+20)], maybe we should have looked into who owned the forest! 

Just for the hell of it, I'm going to do follow up in an August Entry.  We'll see.

*Wachovia Branch in Center

**Pecentages rounded.

This Past Week...

The Market was fickle this week...

LJPC :  This thing, again.  Last year I made a couple Cowboy Trades with La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company, both lost.  Then, a couple months ago, an ex-partner of mine in San Diego said it might be in play.  I think it was @.23 when I put it on a Watchlist.  Last week, another call as a reminder to look at it.  The wanted to merge with a company, but at the time they only had a 9% reply from thier investor base and could not meet a Quorum.  Things were at a standstill. 

     Friday, I put together a couple other Cowboys for a  Short Block.  The stock was @[.11] when we put in an order to buy @.13.  Our investment strategy behind this move was that if the company was still alive, after Monday, the stock would go up.  On Monday our Ameritrade Account purchased the shares @.105.  On Tuesday, the shares went up to .185.  So we caught a Break Even Cash Out @183 (we almost missed the bid in the time it took to register the trade) and started "playing with the House's money".  All-in-all we were satisfied with the Play.  The remainder of the week, after being delisted from NASDAQ, LJPC ended @.07!  We may ONLY break even, but there's always the cash dispersment if the co. goes "belly up".  Oh well...

After that "long winded" entry, I hesitate to add more, but...

CCC :  I took a bit of Calgon Carbon this week as the stock was falling (Thursday).  It was part of a Group Buy and it's in a Holding Account, but I'm getting Out @20%. 

They provide services, products, and solutions for purifying water, air, food, beverage, and industrial process streams in the United States and internationally.

LTHU :  I'm hot on this stock!  I did a Holding Buy on it this week and am very happy.  It's cheap, so anyone can Get In.  I would tell you about it, but Reserch is so much fun.  Check it out!

Hope Springs Eternal...

Popped Up in my E-mail from Calendar Alerts, today:

"Alerts from Windows Live Calendar

You have received the following alert from Windows Live Calendar provided by Windows Live Alerts Service

Take Profits @ Dow 1240

Monday, March 1, 2010"

Was entered in December; thought I'd be too busy Trading to remember to check stocks for Pofit Taking.  Didn't quite see this Corrective Season coming...