Tuesday...

Leaving Chips on the Table and Riding the Same Numbers...

"Special Dividens" Strategy...

In Development...

End of Year Strategies...

    

     This is the time of year when We can start taking a breather on trading.  Our current Strategy is to go into a Holding Pattern until January of 2011.

     After Our recent Positioning in HTS (Heavy, Heavy) it's time for us to settle in.  Sure there's going to be the Infrequent Trade, but the Major Plays (excluding HTS) of going Back IN Long to MGM, LVS, MRO, PIKE, WFC and XOMA (mostly using Dollar-Cost Averaging) have been made.  today was a good day to achieve this. 

     And I've coined a new phrase: "Redown"- buying shares on the downswing in cos one has Long Position on.  We've always used this Strategy, but it took kudos from a broker I respect for me to realize what a Very Good Strategy this is.  

We'll be using Divs Only to achieve trades for Nov-Dec.
We've Lost so much money on XOMA, that our DCA has been "improved" by 64%...
(The strategy on XOMA is Pure Spec; not intended for the timid.
And We are IN Heavy.)

Clear Sailing ahead for Teekay Offshore...

         Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. (TOO) has long been a favorite of mine.  Recently, the price has been good and Held it's Value.  The main reason We own it is for the Div. in the 8% Range.  The Value Forward will be based on the fact that oil, regardless of the barrel price, must be Shipped and Stored.  Empirical Intuition Trading at it's most Elementary.  If you can catch it @ the $19-21 Range, GET IN.

 (a Buy Op, selfishly, I hope won't happen...)

Light a Candle And Hold It for the Vigil, If That's What It Takes; But Be Vigilant!...

     In my (long ago) Market Basics Posting on HubPages, I informed readers of the Three Different Types of Accounts We have and what the role of each was.  Lately, Our "Cowboys" has been VERY active with IN & OUT Trades (TIGC, CTIC, et al).  If those accounts hadn't the Vigil on them, we'd have losses; as we wouldn't have Caught the UPs or the Downs. 
     Unfortunately, one of my readers, has just "taken a bath" in her Playing.  It only took a day, but what a difference a day makes!  M-a-y-b-e your Holding and Working Accounts can afford a bit of neglect (with Sell or Loss Orders in place) --- but Cowboy Trades will not be a good investment vehicle if they are neglected.
     The Caution I'm  Posting, here, is to set up the OPEN/NOON/9PM Check-in on your Positions (DUH!) if you're into The Play.  And I'll reiterate my fav comment; "Pigs Starve".  10% Gains on a 2-Day Play should have Stop Losses applied!

(And we all bath, occassionally...)

Weyerhaeuser Company, A BUY?...

  Last year, we finally had enough profits to break out of our Comfort Level and purchase stocks over $20 per share.  One of the first Heavy Buys was The Weyerhaeuser Company (WY).  We went IN @ 36.21 on anticipation of surely rising housing construction and, as a Holding Stock, more future diversification into Real Estate Sales.  In May, we got on a bender to Dump "Non-Performing/Stagnant" Stocks to raise Buy Cash.  WY was on the guillotine and was sold on the 19th for 43.87.  It had come off the High of 53.89 and SmarTrend had perdicted a Downturn, c'est la vie...

    Investment Life went on, as we took the company off the Port Watchlists and relegated it to Prospectives.  The next Blip came on July 20th when the shares dropped from 41.83 the previous day to 15 + change.  This major correction was due to the fall in demand of packing boxes (??) and bad housing reports.

NOW...

     We just went IN @ 15.445, purchasing the exact amount of shares we did in October of last year.   Same strategy will apply and we'll toast the move, tonight; not only for going back in, but for the bullet we dodged earlier this year (we already raised a glass to that).

This, Boys and Girls

is how The Game is Played...

(Now, if only we could only get EVEN on ZOMA!!!..)

Surprise in Conflicting Results...

     Our Current Retail Portfolio Stocks (BBBY, CHS, DDS, DKS, SMRT, TLB) aren't often thought of by us as "Contrarian Stocks"*, but they don't seen to be hurting too much in view of Consumer Sentiment being Lower Than Expected in October '10.
     However, we did choose these stocks based on a Recovering Economy as opposed to some we may have chosen (but not purchased) for a Declining One; say, a WMT or TGC.  That Play seems to be paying off.

*"Contrarian Stocks" are those in Our Ports which go against the Dow, rising in price as the Dow is down and visa-versa.

Oct 15 (Reuters) - Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers' preliminary October consumer sentiment fell to 67.9 from 68.2 in the final September reading according to a report released on Friday. Economists in a Reuters survey expected a preliminary October reading of 69.0.

Today...

     Getting ready to go back IN on WFC?  NOW is the time to stay vigilant...

Another Batch of Quantitative Easing - "Let The Good Times Roll"; But There Are Caveats, And Keep Your Stop-Losses Current...

    Investor Risk Appetite has risen with every hint that the US Federal Reserve stands ready to inject further liquidity into the economy via the purchase of financial assets.

     The Strategy, which will be the Second Batch of Quantitative Easing, and is therefore known as QE2, is the primary cause of the Dollar’s 7% Fall over the past month.

     And from the dollar’s decline traders can follow a well-thumbed bullish strategy map: the weak greenback boosts dollar-denominated commodities and helps US corporates, 50 per cent of whose earnings are made abroad. US equity futures are up 0.3 per cent.

     The trick for investors is to work out how much of QE2 is now factored into the market, or whether recent gains in riskier assets can be justified by the Fundamentals.  And, Hell, I really Hate Following Cos based on the Fundies (My Empirical Intuition goes out the window!).

     Sure, the Early Positive Indicators from the Third-Quarter Earnings Season may go some way to justifying recent optimism, but can such profits be maintained when the underlying economic data remains so tepid?

Also, global investors seem to be so in thrall to Wall Street’s moves that they are blinded to the fact that a rising S&P 500 based on dollar weakness is an advance built on US companies eating their international competitors’ lunch.

Oh yeah, the dollar’s tumble is wrenching the globalisation consensus. The “Currency War” is again rumbling.  Still, were a long way from the Unreliable Accounting Practices of, say, The BRICKs!

The Best 100 BUCKS a Month You'll Spend...

      I am loathe to put too much credence (and Money) into Subscription Services when I have the time to do my own R&B.  Too many FREE Information Sites and Access to Info through Brokers to actually eat into my Profits (it's 2010!) by Spending on "Advice".  I've a plethora of Advisory Sites listed on my Investment Toolbox Blog (every site we regularly use for Our R&B), some free - others subscription. 
     We Clique Members "piggyback" off eachother's accounts and have access to the subscribed information on Shared Sites.  We're not happy about the prospect of paying $100 a month when other sites are available in the $49 a year range.

However...

     I am Posting, here, to Endorse a Site for VERY Good Advice: SmartTrend.

     You guys know the Douglas45 Empirical Intuition Theory of which I am Hell Bent For Leather to defend.  I have tried to "beat" SmartTrend's Alerts to me by allowing myself to maintain faith in some of the Buys I initiated; and have had a recent substantial Loss in doing so (XOMA).

     SmartTrend isn't infallible (TOO, FDX), but that $100 A Month is for the "Canary" we're carrying into the "Coal Mine".  Check it out!

Cautionary Retail Sector Advice...

     I have had to make my rationale for the Retail Sector to My Partners.  This is the time of year I think about the Fall BuyIn Season and Retailers are my Stars.
     
     The topic was "Saturation".  I used Lowes as opposed to Home Depot and Wal-Mart vs smaller Consumer Outlets.  My argument is both LOW and WMT have "maxxed out" both thier expansion and customer base.  The room for Future Growth has a very thin margin.

EDIT    

Q3...

We'll be going back
into Retail in Q3.
 
Will keep you Posted.

" The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow. Bet [Invest] your bottom dollar that tommorow; The Sun Will Shine."...(thanks Annie) "Riding The Storm Out"...(thanks Foghat)

    

We should brace for further signs of weakness in the economic recovery this week as earnings from key retailers are expected.
     Industrial production, housing starts and inflation data will come under scrutiny as well, after stocks on Friday wrapped up their worst week in six. Last week's sell-off also drove stocks back into negative territory for the year.
     Technical Charts show "Sell" signals, indicating more weakness. At the same time, some analysts say the market may be due for a bounce.

However...

     I happen to like the Current Downturn as a Buy Opp.  We have been sitting on what little Profit we wringed out of The Current Market and haven't "had Dinner" in awhile.  Afterhours showed upswing on Friday, which bodes well for Mon/Tues Trading (what else is new?). 
     Sure, it's a dismal time, but we'll get through it.  It is not the time to Sell; so if your short on funds - Ride This Downturn Out.  I am loath to predict a Sure Thing, but I do know this Downturn Will Not Last.  

     It's easy for us investors who have been actively involved in our Portfolios over the past 14 months to be Crybabies. 
     The Managers and Investors who were active before the Fall (sorry for the double entendre) of 2008, roll their eyes at us for the Bitch and Complain over a 12% loss on an 81% Gain.  Boo Hoo... 

Flip those numbers around for Q1 of 2009
and you realize the reason for their feigned contempt
and, also, that This Downturn Is Doable.

Today's Strategy...

Check out DelTron, Inc (DTRO) for a Cash Grab.

Banco Santander, S.A. (STD) won't necessarily do more, after Passing Test, than the 15% Gain from last month.  We're Holding, not Taking Profit (as we have already done earlier this year). 

CLWR is Cheap.  It's overdue for an upward swing.

Add to Watchlist: Take A Look At MLPs...

Check out Master Limited Partnerships.
 

     MLPs are limited partnerships that are publicly traded.   One of the most crucial criterion that must be met in order for a partnership to be legally classified as an MLP is that the partnership must derive most (~90%) of its cash flows from real estate, natural resources and commodities.
     The advantage of an MLP is that it combines the tax benefits of a limited partnership (the partnership does not pay taxes from the profit - the money is only taxed when unitholders receive distributions) with the liquidity of a publicly traded company.

We have had:
K-Sea Tranportation (KSP),
Eagle Rock Energy Partners (EROC) and
Navios Maritime Partners (NMM)
in Working Accounts for awhile and are having fun in Spec.  Make them a part of a Cash Dividend Strategy.  Regardless the price of oil, it'll still need to be shipped.  It's a funny reason for Buying In, but we've made enough money on these to "laugh all the way to the bank".  As an adjunct, we're Twice as Heavy IN Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO).

Now...

Did you catch the TGIC Rebound?  Still Cheap!  Remember, as a Group, we use this stock for a Cash Grab.

     Another deal is WFC.  We're in at $27 and change and are Re-Upping at current prices [25.41]. 
     I had a broker question why I was so positive on Wells-Fargo when there were other's to spec on which may be more profitable (besides STD, WFC is the only currently Held in Ports).  I told him I had to be comfortable with the companies The Group buys and we'd done well enough not to Prostitute Principles (too much).  By the way, his suggestion was BAC, a company you'll never read a good thing about, herein.  

This Week: Moves...

LTHU - LVS - watch TGIC
CQB - finish IWA - DKS (?)

Union Disputes Trade...

Cameco Corporation Common Stock (NYSE: CCJ)

What To Do...

     We're lucky in the fact that Our Ports are Diversified and Large.  With the Market Moving Sideways, lately, Our Strategy is to just Manage them.  Still, we need to place cash, which is backing up.  Along with Cash Dividends we earn on Non-Holding Account stocks, there's the money we have to invest from outside sources (salaries, royalties, retainers, tipouts et. al.).

     This is where Our Port Diversity comes in handy.  We bitch and complain when we're looking for bargins, THAT OUR STOCKS ARE THE BARGAINS!  This has lead us to a flurry of Re-Ups.  Our recently rolled follow:

XOMA - TGIC (Cowboy) - SIRI

HON - CENX - MSY - PIKE - AA - DRE

MGM - NOK - ODP - WFC

Take a look at your Port and do some Re-Upping.  Hell, you had Faith in the Stock when you bought it; The Market is testing that Faith. 

Relax and Manage...

      In 2010, we've a few good HITS  (TIE, BGP, PIKE, BKCC, TGIC...)  and bad MISSES (XOMA, PDLI).  Our Ratio had never been lower than 8:1. 

      Especially with the Market in Flux (missing 2009, yet?), it's a good time to Actively Manage your Portfolios.  Even our best picks wouldn't be on the HITs List if we'd just bought them and not sold or taken profits at strategic points.  And the stocks on the MISSes List don't bother us too much when considering the Long Position on them. 

     We've taken a bunch of Statics out of Our Ports over the past months, which has enabled us to Grow.  Our Rule is a stock has a 3 Month Period to Perform.  After that, we decide on Dump or Hold.  We breath deeply and Take the Dive on non-performers (PDLI) and move on.
     It's only when your Trading Become Static that you really start losing.

     I never Publish a Strategy until it has done well (working on a couple for the Fall).  As for Picks, I could come up with 20-30 per day; but my Due Diligence on them would be Sorely Lacking on them and This Advisory would become completely irrelevant; won't happen.  My "subscribers" know what I mean...

Now, Relax and Do Your Managing.  To paraphrase a popular soda commercial "Do the DUE" (Diligence) [no, we don't own Pepsico!].